NWA Real Estate
Cities

The Census Counts Students Where They Sleep — I Had It Backwards

Author

Phillip Shepard

Date Published

Band performing to a large lawn crowd at a free outdoor summer concert in a Northwest Arkansas park

The Census Bureau counts college students at their campus address, not wherever they happened to be on Census Day. I argued the opposite in my video answering Google questions about Northwest Arkansas, and used it to claim Fayetteville's 2020 count was badly low. The rule works the other way around, and the correction is worth making because it's about how a public process actually functions.

The census claim, corrected

Here's what I said: that the census counts you "wherever you are at the moment," that a lot of University of Arkansas students were away in 2020, and that Fayetteville's real population was therefore "about 115,000, maybe 120,000."

The Census Bureau's residence rule counts people where they live and sleep most of the time. For a college student, that's the campus address — the dorm or the off-campus apartment they rent for the school year — regardless of where they physically are in April. And the Bureau issued explicit guidance for 2020 saying students should be counted at their school address even if COVID had sent them home before April 1. On-campus students were enumerated directly through the group quarters process, by the university, not by whether anyone answered a door.

So the mechanism I described is backwards, and I found no record of Fayetteville or the university filing a formal challenge over a student undercount. Worth noting: a Count Question Resolution challenge can't be used to contest dormitory counts anyway, so it wouldn't have been the available remedy even if someone had wanted one.

The number I gave doesn't survive either. Fayetteville's 2020 census figure was 93,949, not the 98,000 I said. Getting from there to 115,000 or 120,000 would require missing more people than the entire student body — and total University of Arkansas enrollment is now a record 34,000-plus, of whom only about 6,200 live on campus. The other four-fifths live in the local rental market, where the ordinary household count picks them up.

What I did get right about Fayetteville

The conclusion held even though the reasoning didn't. Fayetteville is Arkansas's second-largest city — it passed Fort Smith in the 2020 count — and it's still the largest city in Northwest Arkansas. Nobody has caught it.

The current Census estimates, for 2024:

  • Little Rock — 204,774
  • Fayetteville — 99,319
  • Fort Smith — 89,805
  • Springdale — 88,160
  • Jonesboro — 80,137
  • Rogers — 75,639
  • Conway — 69,580
  • North Little Rock — 64,531

Fayetteville has, in other words, reached the number I mistakenly attributed to 2020 — just four years later and by growing rather than by being miscounted.

The one weakness I conceded is not actually a weakness

This is the part I'd most want back. Asked whether Northwest Arkansas is a nice place to live, I passed along a complaint: "some things that people might complain about when it comes to living here is if they want big concerts or unique stuff, they have to go to Kansas City or Tulsa." I attributed it to other people rather than asserting it myself, which is fair to note — but I repeated it without checking, and it doesn't hold up.

That was already wrong when I said it. The Walmart AMP in Rogers seats about 11,000 and in recent Pollstar mid-year rankings placed roughly ninth in the United States and eleventh worldwide by tickets sold. Chappell Roan set the venue attendance record at 10,881. Post Malone holds the highest-grossing show. Foo Fighters, Kenny Chesney, Chris Stapleton and Hozier have all played it.

You do not have to leave Northwest Arkansas for big concerts. We have one of the busiest amphitheaters in the country, twenty minutes from most of the metro. Repeating a complaint I could have disproved in one search isn't much better than making it myself.

Rankings shift year to year, so check the current Pollstar figures rather than mine. The direction doesn't shift.

What residents actually say is missing

Rather than guess at the region's shortcomings, here's what residents report. The Walton Family Foundation and Northwest Arkansas Council run a Quality of Life Survey that asks them directly, and these are the most recent figures I could find.

Transportation is the standout gap: only about 18% rate it excellent or very good, and roughly half rate it poor or fair. Mass transit has repeatedly landed among the most-wanted improvements, named by something like 29% of respondents. Housing options score nearly as badly — only about 23% rate them excellent or very good.

Transit and housing. Not concerts. If I'm going to name a weak spot for someone deciding whether to move here, those are the two that residents themselves keep naming, and they're both things you'd feel every day rather than a few nights a year.

The drive times were optimistic

I said Tulsa is "about an hour and a half," Kansas City "about 3 hours," and Dallas "about a 5-hour drive." From Bentonville, the real numbers:

  • Tulsa: about 114 miles, roughly 2 hours and 7 minutes
  • Kansas City: about 210 miles, roughly 3 hours and 32 minutes
  • Dallas: about 358 miles, roughly 5 hours and 30 minutes

Dallas was close. Tulsa is off by about forty minutes and Kansas City by about half an hour, which is the difference between a day trip and an overnight. Worth having right if you're planning around it.

The state symbol I fumbled

Milk is correct. Arkansas designated it the official state beverage in 1985, and my reaction to that — "who wants to make their state drink milk" — stands.

The other symbol I reached for is unintelligible in my own audio — it comes out as something like "P and Pie," followed by "that came out of here is not what you think it is." I can't reconstruct what I meant, so here are Arkansas's food symbols and you can pick the one I was after.

The South Arkansas Vine Ripe Pink Tomato, designated in 1987, is Arkansas's official state fruit and official state vegetable. Same tomato, both jobs — which does fit "not what you think it is." The state nut is the pecan, designated in 2009, and the state grain is rice, from 2007.

And one that trips people up: the official state pie is not possum pie. It's Company's Comin' Pie, a whipped cream, sugar and crushed pineapple affair adopted in 1986 for Arkansas's sesquicentennial. Possum pie is a real and beloved Arkansas dessert with no official standing whatsoever.

The venues, confirmed

Everything I rattled off in the things-to-do answer checks out, with one name I should be clearer about.

Walton Arts Center in Fayetteville does host a genuine touring Broadway series — the 2026-27 season carries six touring productions, five of them Arkansas premieres — and it's the state's busiest performing arts center. TheatreSquared, adjacent to it, is Northwest Arkansas's only year-round professional theatre, running about 220 performances a year under Actors' Equity contracts.

Onyx Coffee Lab is in The 1907 building in downtown Rogers. Topgolf is in Rogers.

And what I called "bike camps over there" in downtown Rogers is the Railyard Bike Park — a purpose-built park with a rail-car feature, berms, jumps and skill progressions, connected by trail to Lake Atalanta. "Bike camps" is not a thing. The Railyard is, and it's one of the better arguments for the whole region.